There will come a time in everyone’s life when they will choose to stop working and must determine how much income they’ll require from their retirement savings.
每个人生命中都会迎来这个时期——要选择停止工作并确定养老金会带来多少收入。
Those who are fortunate will have a large nest egg to draw from and can live comfortably and without worry. But that’s not true for everyone.
幸运的人会有一大笔养老金，可以高枕无忧，但并非人人如此。
These days, people are living longer and may need income for 25, 30, or even 40 years. How much money does a retiree need to save?
现在的人更长寿，可能要领25、30甚至40年养老金，退休人员要攒多少钱呢？
Is $500,000 enough?
500,000美元够吗？
For many people, that total may not be sufficient. But the right investment portfolio could provide enough income to get you by.
对很多人来说，这个总数可能不够，但选对理财产品就能保证你安度晚年了。
Let’s assume that a person is receiving about $17,000 annually from Social Security, which is roughly the average pay for those receiving benefits today.
我们假设一个人每年从社保领17,000美元，大概是现在养老金的平均数额。
The rest of their annual income must come from their investment portfolio of $500,000.
其余的年收入来自500,000美元的投资收益。
That means that they will need to pull in about $33,000 from their investments just to earn $50,000 in their first year of retirement.
这就意味着退休第一年想要有50,000美元的收入，他们投资收益大约要有33,000美元。
We should assume that inflation will cause income needs to rise, so the retiree’s investment portfolio needs to increase as well.
我们要假设通货膨胀会导致收入需求的增长，所以退休人员的投资收益也要随之增加。
Thus, it’s important to have a portfolio that can protect your savings while also allowing it to grow faster than your annual withdrawals. This means finding the right balance between stocks and fixed-income investments.
因此很重要的是要找到一个既能保护你的积蓄，又能保证收入增速超过年消费增速的理财产品，这意味着要在股票和固定收益类投资之间找到一个平衡。
Keep in mind that most financial advisors recommend following the “four percent rule” regarding the withdrawals on accounts.
你要记住大部分投资顾问提到账户提款时都会给出下面的“百分之四原则”。
This guideline suggests that to ensure retirement savings will last for the rest of their lives, they should not withdraw more than 4 percent of their income on an annual basis.
这个指导原则建议你为了保证退休金能让你安度晚年，每年取款钱数不能超过收入的4%。
With $500,000 in savings, most investors will be forced to either violate the four percent rule or live on a very small income.
大部分投资者有500,000美元的存款也会被迫要么违反百分之四的原则，要么靠很少的收入维持生活。
Let’s examine 2 possible investment portfolios of $500,000 and a look at the potential income.
我们来看两组500,000美元可以买的理财产品以及潜在的收入。
20/80
20/80投资方案
(20 percent equities and 80 percent fixed income.)
（20%买股票，80%买固定收益理财产品。）
10 percent US Equities
10%买美国股票
10 percent International Equities
10%买国际股票
10 percent U.S. Treasuries
10%买美国国债
15 percent Global Bonds
15%买全球债券
15 percent Corporate Bonds
15%买公司债券
5 percent Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
5%买通货膨胀保值债券
10 percent Mortgage-backed securities
10%买按揭证券
20 percent Cash and CD
20%持有现金和活期存款
5 percent Other bonds
5%买其他债权
In this scenario, 20 percent of an investor’s portfolio would be placed into equities, with the other 80 percent invested in fixed income.
这个方案中，投资者收益的20%投到股票上，剩余80%用于投资固定收益的产品。
The equities would be in a basic S&P 500 index fund or similar investments designed to mirror the movement of the overall stock market. The fixed-income investments would be largely comprised of bonds, with some cash and CDs.
股票是标准普尔500指数基金或类似的投资产品，要能反映整个股市的走势。固定收益的投资中大部分是债券，还有一些现金和活期存款。
With this much money placed in fixed income securities, a person’s portfolio would be reasonably protected against a bad stock market crash. However, this portfolio might struggle to generate the kind of income the retiree needs.
大部分钱放在固定收益的投资中，个人收益就会得到合理的保护，以免遭遇糟糕的股市暴跌。然而这笔收益产生的收入勉强够退休者所需。
Doug Amis, the owner, and CEO of Cardinal Retirement Planning notes that between 1926 and 2017, a 20/80 portfolio generated an average annual return of 6.7 percent. That’s barely above the withdrawal rate needed to produce the necessary $33,000 and investors with shorter time horizons may see lower returns.
卡迪纳尔退休计划的老板兼首席执行官Doug Amis指出，1926年-2017年间20/80的投资方案创造了年均6.7%的回报率，刚刚超过要赚到所需的33,000美元的提款比率，短期投资者的收益会更少。
This portfolio could work, Amis says, but “it’s not what we would recommend based on future expected returns.”
Amis说这个方案有用，但“基于未来预期收益我们并不建议这种投资”。
50/50
50/50投资方案
(50% equities and 50% fixed income)
（50%买股票，50%买固定收益的投资产品）
25% U.S. Equities
25%买美国股票
25% International Equities
25%买国际股票
20% U.S. Treasuries
20%买美国国债
10% Global Bonds
10%买全球债券
10% Corporate Bonds
10%买公司债券
15% Cash and CDs
15%持有现金和活期存款
Amis says a better portfolio would place involve placing half of the funds in equities and the other half in fixed income.
Amis说，更好的理财产品要用一半资产买股票，另一半买固定收益的投资产品。
The equities could be placed in a combination of U.S. equities, along with stocks and funds focused on international and emerging markets.
股票包括美股和以国际和新兴市场为主的股票和基金。
Research from Vanguard suggests such a portfolio has generated an average annual return of 8.4 percent over time. That would bring about $42,000 in annual income the first year and give the retiree some extra cushion and allow some accommodation for inflation.
领航投资（先锋集团）的研究表明长期做这样的投资能产生年均8.4%的收益，第一年年收入约为$42,000，退休者能有一些额外存款并抵消通货膨胀带来的损失。
However, it’s key to note that the additional equity does bring some additional risk.
然而值得注意的是额外的股票的确会增加风险。
A 50/50 portfolio lost money in 17 of 92 years between 1926 and 2017, compared to 12 down years for the 20/80 portfolios.
50/50的投资方案在1926年-2017年的92年间有17年是赔钱的，相比之下20/80的投资方案有12年赔钱。
